cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/15948872
Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low
One very interesting aspect of this is that most people do notice if the crime rate is lower in their area, but are still likely to complain that the crime rate is too high generally, even if they don’t see that in their own local community.
I attribute this directly to 24-hour cable news, which tries to grab our attention by telling us how bad everything is. I wonder if any study has tried to correlate the public’s perception of crime to where they get their news.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/
While perceptions of rising crime at the national level are common, fewer Americans believe crime is up in their own communities. In every Gallup crime survey since the 1990s, Americans have been much less likely to say crime is up in their area than to say the same about crime nationally.
Same exact thing is happening with the economy:
The vast majority of those surveyed — 68% — said it was becoming harder for the average person to get ahead, while nearly half of respondents said their own finances were moving in the right direction.
We are cripplingly addicted to myopic sensationalism, and the death of local news means that as information consumers we’re increasingly hypnotized by national news corporations who have no roots or stake in local communities and who thrive on rage bait. Put simply, there’s no localized and tempered source of information that can balance out the neverending national panic.
Violent crime isn’t all crime though. If someone sees discarded needles every day on the street, they aren’t that greatful when you say “at least you weren’t mugged.”
If you can’t leave packages at your front door, you don’t care as much that there was only 1 drive by shooting in the area.
You won’t get stabbed on the subway, but you will get a scam call and 3 scam texts on your ride.
Violent crime isn’t the only crime that results in violence either.
Road deaths and injuries are way up and prosecution for killing someone with a car is constantly excused and dismissed even as people get more negligent (screen use) and risky behind the wheel.
“You risk your lives every day for the safety of the people you don’t even know. That’s why each of you, each and every one of you, is a hero. It’s no accident that violent crime is near a record 50-year low.”
I find the actual quote kind of problematic on multiple levels. ACAB aside, not every cop is a good guy let alone a hero.
And he is crediting police with a record 50-year low? I don’t buy that.
But yes, the perception that Republicans are “tough on crime” needs to go away cause their fear mongering has nothing to do with actual crime prevention.
it’s also just wrong.
It’s the lead folks. Biden should be crediting the EPA.
Something about causality and correlation…
Correlation doesn’t imply causation, but it does waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while mouthing ‘look over there’.
Again, it’s not been shown to be a significant factor in the drop in crime in the 20th century. There’s more explanation needed than just lead.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046222000667?via%3Dihub
The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis
Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.
Systematic reviews / meta-analysis
The first meta-analysis of the lead-crime hypothesis was published in 2022. “The Lead-Crime Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis”, authored by Anthony Higney, Nick Hanley, and Mirko Moro consolidates findings of 24 studies on the subject. It found that there is substantial evidence linking lead exposure to a heightened risk of criminal behavior, particularly violent crimes. This aligns with earlier research suggesting lead exposure may foster impulsive and aggressive tendencies, potential precursors to violent offenses. The study concluded that, while a correlation between declining lead pollution and declining criminality is supported by research, it is likely not a significant factor in reduced crime rates, and that the link is generally overstated in lead-crime literature.
The study’s implications point towards the potential benefits of reducing lead exposure to decrease crime rates. Such reductions could be achieved through initiatives like removing lead from products like gasoline and paint, water pipes and enhancing lead abatement measures in schools and residences.
Thanks for that.
So, you say biden is killing the small arms industry?
I think saying things like that is also meant to be inspiring. Like when you tell all the kids on a hockey team that they’re great and they’re gonna kick ass out on the ice, but you know who they’re about to play and they don’t stand a chance. But who knows, maybe telling them they’re great will get one or two of them to dream about being a future hockey hero, and they’ll get out on the ice and really kick some ass for once - make that extra pass, hit the net for a shot, or hold off on that big, useless, cross-check to the head that would put them in the sin bin for 5 minutes.
If the kids can dream, so can you, right?
I know that he has to say what he said regardless of if it’s true or not. But the problem is that many cops are actual bad guys.
If a third of your hockey team is perfectly capable of playing well but spends the whole game fighting and abusing their spouse, saying 100% of the team is doing great just gives validation to the bad apples.
Maybe you’ll inspire those bad apples to be great.
No, bad apples spoil the bunch. that’s kinda the whole thing about that idiom
And he is crediting police with a record 50-year low? I don’t buy that.
Neither should you - if it’s safe for you to walk the streets the pig is the last people on the planet you should thank.
That doesn’t really matter when the media knows that the more it reports on lurid crime, the more people pay attention, meaning the more they can charge for advertising.
The consumer of commercial news is not the customer, they’re the product.
Mmm… well it does matter from the context that actual violence is down. When we’re talking about violent crimes.
It doesn’t matter when talking about this other problem, that the media is essentially a constitutionally protected capitalism and greed factory.
It doesn’t matter in terms of what people believe, how they vote and what policies are enacted since those are all based on fear.
Are you implying that the majority of people don’t look at facts and statistics?
Do Facebook facts count?
Do you have any evidence or data to support this conclusion, or are you participating in the behavior?
Plenty, take a look at anyone that votes for tRump.
Do you seriously need evidence that most people don’t research what they hear on the news?
Yes. Because not everything that appears intuitive, is fact. This is how disinformation is spread. It is a vulnerability in the human psychology.
But it does matter. It matters very much that they’re voting and behaving based on things that are not actually real. It matters that Biden’s telling the truth, and evidence supports him. Does it mean his message is going to resonate with voters? Probably not. But it goes to the heart of our current predicament to observe that the world that exists in people’s heads doesn’t resemble the one they actually live in. We are in a self-fulfilling doom loop.
If we grant that crime is down but that Biden should act like it isn’t down because people think it’s up, then we’re venturing off into a very dark wilderness where nothing is true and facts no longer matter. That’s a world where people like Trump thrive.
Are the accounting for police crime in these stats? I’d be interested to see if police violence has increased in the US.
But immigrants… So you’re clearly wrong. You have to be! Immigrants!!!
/s
A right winger I know looked at the stats from the FBI, and his only takeaway was “Yeah, but crime is up since 2014. Media just making a fake narrative that only works on leftists.”
Coworkers are fun.
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Violence is the US primary export
