• derf82@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Moving past tipping points. With permafrost melting, sea ice melting and not reforming, and fires in the boreal forest, the feedback loop is developing. We are going to blow past 2 degrees C way faster than anyone predicted.

    • alvvayson@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Honestly, anyone paying attention saw this coming since 2010.

      We had twenty years to avoid this: by massively switching to nuclear power in the 90s and 00s.

      We missed that exit ramp. By 2010 it was clear that 2 degrees was unavoidable.

      The choice now is, do we limit it to 2-3 degrees warming, or do we go straight to 4-5 degrees?

      It will take at least two decades to transform our industrial world economy.

      • schroedingershat@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Switching >50% of the power to wind could have happened any time in the last 80 years for far less than any one of the various failed nuclear transitions.

        Hell, the first commercial solar thermal installation was over a century ago and the first attempt to bring PV to market was george cove in 1906. One abandoned nuclear reactor worth of investment could have moved either down the economic learning curve to replace coal.

      • Kinglink@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        “Nuclear power scares me”

        Welcome to the result. It’s sad, because nuclear power was the way, but instead we propegandized against it and continued to use it as a boogie man.

        Ignoring the fact that coal and natural gas still hurt and kill people daily, ignoring there’s over 400 nuclear power reactors that are still active, 93 in America… But no… “Chernobyl” and the discussion ends.

        Also Chernobyl was a 50 year old design, and happened 40 years ago, involved multiple human errors … nah can’t consider things have changed since then.

        Now we have people using another nuclear plant in Ukraine as an example, and again the fear rises. They’re trying to weaponize the plant, but somehow it’s “Nuclear power” and not the fact some fuckheads are planning to destroy it in a destructive fashion that’s the problem.

        Somehow dams that would be devistating to destroy are given a pass, but hey Nuclear power, so scary.

        • mierdabird@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          1 year ago

          Chernobyl was a 50 year old design, and happened 40 years ago, involved multiple human errors … nah can’t consider things have changed since then.

          Things have indeed changed, now construction regulations are far tighter. This is good because the risk of a Chernobyl event is far lower, but at the price of extreme cost overruns and project delays

          Ignoring the fact that coal and natural gas still hurt and kill people daily

          So is it better to start a nuclear project and hope it can start reducing coal & NG emissions 10 years from now? Or is it better to add solar and wind capacity constantly and at a fraction of the price per MWh?

          There was a time when nuclear was the right choice, but now it is just not cost effective nor can it be brought online fast enough to make a dent in our problems

          Somehow Dams that would be devistating to destroy are given a pass, but hey Nuclear power, so scary.

          I think you’re forgetting that once the waters from a dam break dry up you can rebuild…a nuclear accident has the potential to poison the land for generations

          • Kinglink@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            There was a time when nuclear was the right choice, but now it is just not cost effective nor can it be brought online fast enough to make a dent in our problems

            And in ten years… it’ll be too long to add nuclear … And in ten years it’ll.

            Solar and wind works in some places, it doesn’t work in all places, and the goal is to start moving away from Coal and Natural gas, it’s a long process no matter which way you go, but starting to add more nuclear capactiy so in 10 years we can use it, isn’t a bad thing.

            “It’s too late” has also been a refrain about Nuclear, but hey, in 2010 if people started to go nuclear, we’d have that capacity today, instead it was too late then, and we can only go solar and Wind… and we’re still lacking.

          • Kinglink@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            cheaper and vastly safer alternative techs are available?

            That’s the problem “cheaper and vastly safer” alternatives AREN’T always available. People continue to talk up Solar, and Wind, but they’re not viable for a majority of users of coal and natural gas plants. To produce the power that Nuclear does in square mile of land, you need 50 square miles of solar at least, and over 360 square miles for Wind. And that’s also saying you need viable places, because Wind turbines can’t just be thrown up anywhere, nor can solar.

            Coal and Natural gas is more efficient by a factor of at least 10 in land space.

            If you’re in the middle of nowhere, that’s viable, if you live in a big city, that’s going to become a problem quickly.

            • CantSt0pPoppin@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              The statement that “cheaper and vastly safer alternative techs are NOT always available” is not accurate. Solar and wind energy are becoming more viable as technology improves, and the land requirements for these technologies are not as significant as they once were. In addition, coal and natural gas are not as safe as they are often made out to be. Coal mining is a dangerous occupation, and coal-fired power plants can release harmful pollutants into the air. Natural gas is also a fossil fuel, and its combustion releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

              The cost of coal and natural gas is likely to increase in the future, as the world’s reserves of these resources dwindle. The environmental impacts of coal and natural gas are also becoming increasingly well-known, and public pressure is growing for a transition to cleaner energy sources. The development of new technologies, such as battery storage and smart grids, is making it easier to integrate renewable energy sources into the electricity grid.

              In conclusion, there are a number of reasons to believe that cheaper and vastly safer alternative technologies to coal and natural gas are becoming more available. These technologies offer a number of advantages over traditional fossil fuels, and they are likely to play an increasingly important role in the global energy mix in the years to come.

          • partizan@lemm.ee
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            1 year ago

            Actually we can make nuclear molten salt reactors (working small scale stuff exist for long decades). Since the medium is liquid, it has much better utilization of the fuel, there is no pressurized radioactive water reservoirs (which is the actual issue with current reactors), to stop the reaction, you drain the fuel circulation into a container and you are done, no need to supply water to prevent criticality.

            But since those molten salt reactors could not be used to create plutonium for weapons, the current reactor design was chosen during cold war era.

            They have some drawbacks, like slow startup times, but the cons it provide are incredible.

            • schroedingershat@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              MSRs and LFRs are horribly unreliable and don’t last. There hasn’t even been a successful demo reactor and the technical issues for running one safely at full power long term don’t even have proposed half-solutions.

                • schroedingershat@lemmy.world
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                  1 year ago

                  You’ve now swapped from molten salt reactors to sodium cooled ones while pretending they’re the same thing.

                  CFR has also never run without using U235 as its main fuel source and the chinese program isn’t even pretending to do the hard bit of a breeder which is an economically viable separation system and burning transuranics (because it’s an even thinner veneer on the usual goal of failed breeder programs than usual).

                  Mind-boggling stupidity as always.

          • matlag@sh.itjust.works
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            1 year ago

            Theyve had to start shutting down nuclear reactors in summer when water levels get too low,

            This is a fake news. Period.

            Some reactors had to REDUCE THEIR OUTPUT because otherwise they would exceed the temperature increase they’re allowed to cause in the river, this to preserve life in the river. No reactor was shutdown because of a low water stream.

            What happened last year is a systematic defect was found in an external protection layer, and the decision was made to fix all the reactors having the same potential defect at once. The work took longer than expected, and that caused France having very limited capacity for months, causing worries about power outage.

            Not to say it could never happen in the future, but it didn’t yet.

              • matlag@sh.itjust.works
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                1 year ago

                No, I don’t mean to destroy life in the river. I mean to highlight the difference of impact between going from 90% of your capacity to 0% in one information to reducing from 90% to 80% or even 70%. Shutting down a nuclear reactor is quite a big deal in terms of operations. Restarting it is not like turning back on a switch either. Claiming a reactor was shut down makes it sound like a much bigger deal than what it was.

      • Hamartiogonic@sopuli.xyz
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        1 year ago

        We’re going to need to make all the changes now. Energy production, energy usage, energy storage, transportation, manufacturing, carbon capture and so on. We’re going to need to do all of it, and we’re still in big trouble. My guess is that within the next 100 years the human population might take a dive because of climate change.

      • tissek@ttrpg.network
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        1 year ago

        4-5 degrees? You are optimistic. I bet I get to see 3 degrees in my lifetime as we will blast by each and every exit ramps. Not only that we’ll also be drifting on the highway, because it looks cool.

    • Arsenal4ever@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I think a few scientists at Exxon Mobile predicted this in the 70’s in their worst-case scenario reports.