I’d assume the stats could change in both directions, depending on how long the war lasts, how thoroughly Russia is defeated, and the aftermath. Ukraine joining NATO, Western investments, Russian foreign assets transferred as reparations, Ukraine joining the EU although that’s a complicated and potentially very slow process.
The EU thing ain’t happening any time soon. Just look at how Poland reacted to grain exports. Look at how countries like Hungary block stuff. Look at the rise of the far right across Europe.
Before it can even think of adding Moldova, the EU needs to reform to become functional. Voting by majority, an entirely reworked Common Agricultural Policy, common foreign policy, tackling de-industrialisation, etc. etc.
I don’t see it happening soon. I wonder if it will ever happen, or if it’s too late.
Ukraine joining the EU although that’s a complicated and potentially very slow process.
If our American
mastersfriends ask, we’ll do it, just like we did for Eastern Europe
The key question is how many of the younger women will return home - they, and their children, are key to demographic future of Ukraine, but they can also more easily find jobs in the west. The older women are more likely to miss their roots and depend on host country financial support, so are more likely to return.
Could add a small personal observation from three who came to our village: The oldest - retired - saves money (that she receives from govt here) to invest in a new appartment in the corner of ukraine as far as possible from russia (although she was a russian speaker, from the opposite corner). The middle one stayed here for a complete school year for her kids, then returned to join her husband and help reconstruct their region, left broken as the invaders retreated. The youngest works in tech sector and brought a baby and a man with another nationality (so, free to leave), they seemed more optimistic about the opportunities from this situation - maybe will stay west.