My armchair general take is that Russia is just flinging whatever resources they have left at the Ukrainians. They’ve lost their professional army, their artillery stockpiles, KA-52s, Wagner. Now all they have left are T-72s, BMPs, and bodies, so they’re just hoping for any kind of win with that. It’s not working out, and I’m really curious how long it’ll be before they run out of soviet era armour and suicidal idiots, and what will happen next if they do.

Western media has become completely defeatist about Ukraine’s prospects because Russia is still able to project strength. I honestly think that these tactics are a sign of desperation, and that things could start to fall apart quite suddenly for Russia. If for example, the US and EU pass more aid for Ukraine in early 2024, and Russia runs low on materiel, then it’s not difficult to imagine. I’m hoping that the new ATACMS variant will knock out the Crimean bridge soon, and that a surprise offensive across the Dnieper could isolate Crimea and create a strategic disaster for Russia.

People who understand Putin say that he’s a gambler, not a strategic genius. He’s made so many bad bets since 2021, and I’m starting to hope that this latest roll of the dice using meat wave attacks could be the last time he’s able to double down without serious consequences.

I’m hoping that as soon as Runnia runs out of steam, the US will pass another $60 billion in military aid and flood the zone with bradleys, abrams, f-16s, missiles, etc.

I’ll give that article a read, thanks! In addition to infantry losses, I’ve been really scratching my head about equipment losses. I get that Russia has a colossal amount of old soviet junk which they can throw at Ukrainian defences, but they must be running out. They can only have so many old T-72s in storage that they can get going again. Tanks, APVs, artillary; long term I just don’t see how it will be possible to sustain an 800km long front line without armour or artillery support. Something has to give eventually.

I really hope that this insane tactic will come back to bite him in the near future. There’s no way these losses can be sustainable.

Did the Ukrainians switch on the explosive ammo cheat or something? Holy fuck.

It’s going to take a lot of brave people and a lot of money to demine Ukraine. Luckily, Ukrainians are very brave and they have some extremely rich friends.

Reports are saying there are 40000 reserves being sent to Avdiivka, so it looks like the numbers are going to stay high for a while. Appearently they’ve also run out of armour, so it’s just infantry assaults now. What a horror show. I didn’t think Russia had any reserves, since there’s no rotation happening.

From the Russian point of view, Russian speaking Ukrainians are their fellow citizens. The Russians claim Ukraine is mistreating them and invade to protect “Russians” in DPR/LPR. It’s total bullshit, but it fits Russian’s desire to be seen as both victims and heroes in their own psychodrama about the war.

What a great deal. Ukrainian’s democratic and human rites are being taken away by Russians in exchange for some bird food.

I’m sure you’d feel the same way about this distinction between nice Russian occupiers and bad Russian occupiers if it was your country they were invading, your culture they were destroying, and your democratic rights they were taking away. It’s incredibly naive.

The ones who were executed declined to surrender while on Ukrainian territory. They also could have refused to serve and gone to prison instead, but they didn’t. These gopniks knew what they were getting involved in and they deserve what they got.

I doubt that distinction makes any difference to the Ukrainians who are defending their country from genocidal murderers.

I love it when fascists murder each other!

People and the media keep disparaging Russian tactics in places like Avdiivka and Bakhmut. But it has worked for them in the past, and I’m starting to think Avdiivka might get surrounded. Avdiivka is described as being ‘like a fortress’ which is exactly what they said about Bakhmut a year ago, and that fell to the same strategy. They’ll just keep throwing more and more men into the meat grinder for as long as it takes, chipping away at Ukraine’s defences every day, and eventually after a few months potentially take the town.

It reminds me of how Napoleon used to brag about how he could reliably recruit 15,000 men a week, which gave him confidence that he could keep waging war because France could sustain the losses. I wonder if something similar is being played out in Putin’s calculations. Just keep recruiting and throwing away lives, and eventually you’ll eek out a victory. It’s fucking horrifying. Everyone expects Russia to run out of men and equipment at some point, but they never do. They seem to have an infinite supply of BMPs, men, and Kalashnikovs.

Since cluster munitions were used, a wide area would have been peppered with shrapnel. I’d argue that anything that wasn’t destroyed is badly damaged enough that they’re no longer fit for operations without repairs and maintenance.

Since it’s in Kursk, I would say they’re not ATACMS due to the fact that Western supplied munitions are given to Ukraine on the basis that they won’t be used on Russian territory.

Strongly worded retaliatory measures from the Kremlin are incoming!

Really interesting analysis by Anders. I hadn’t considered how risky it is for Russia to gamble on their forces being able to hold out for another 6 months. If my very limited understanding of battle fatigue from WWII is correct, the average soldier can be expected to last about 200 days without rotation.

I think Russia committed their last VDV reserves about a month ago to the Tokmak front. The mobiks have been complaining in videos about their lack of rotation and poor supplies recently. I’d say best case scenario for Russia, the paratroopers will be able to hold out, but the mobiks and regular troops will break. I don’t think that’s a very good situation for the occupiers to be in.

It is also reported that the pilot died

That’s maybe the best part. The list of people willing to fly over Ukrainian territory must be getting pretty short.

“I see nothing special in their return. Wagner is no longer a powerful force. Those who returned are far from being in a good fighting mood, as they know what to expect here,” Cherevatyi said. “Furthermore, they are now under the control of the Defense Ministry.

That’s pretty important. It seems like Wagner had an effective command structure that allowed for successful offensive capabilities. The Russian military will just mindlessly march them into Ukraine’s meatgrinder.