You know what makes it even sadder? While propaganda does play a huge part of it, from all that we can gather information-wise, a vast majority is motivated by abject poverty and lack of perspectives in life instead of jingoist enthusiasm.

They have been beaten down and dehumanised by the system first, given a bleak and cynical outlook on life and themselves - and then basically been offered money for suicidal operations, most likely benefitting their relatives unless they manage to “win the lottery” and come back home alive.

There’s a very real risk this will become the future of recruitment in Western nations as well, so we really should not turn off our empathy, even though I will never understand how they can charge forward into pants-shitting terror like this, instead of either surrendering or downright fragging their commanders in open mutiny.

Yeah, that was clearly just the group having fun, sounds like it might have been some kind of in-joke. Stuff like keygen music and adding extra fun stuff to your cracks has always been part of the culture. For the most part, while I’m not saying there is zero risk, but as long as it’s from verified groups with good reputation, your pirated software will be safe to use - also part of the culture.

That is actually one of the reasons (have to emphasise: among others, mainly delaying more open repression) I have been advocating heavily for people to turn out to vote for Democrats as a German communist myself. I know it’s cynical, I know I have it easy to think about it like this, not living in the US myself, all valid criticisms. But I genuinely think any Dem president winning against Trump might bait the most fascist elements in the US into really stupid violence they are not organised and prepared for. They think they are, but they are not.

I genuinely think more chaos and conflict is in the cards in the next decades, globally, no matter what is done and who is in charge (unless miracles happen and systemic change is pushed somehow within the status quo, I can see no avenue for it at the moment, though). So to me, that would be provoking fascists into doing something really stupid, too early, and out of a position of weakness, that will leave them weakened and yield a lot of ground to the left overall, making organisation for radical change easier.

No guarantees it’s going to happen and end up playing out like that, of course, details are always fuzzy and there’s no crystal ball. Same goes for my assumption that violence and global chaos beyond what people have been used to in the last 70 years will be inevitable in the decades to come (climate catastrophe, the end of neoliberal consensus worldwide, continuing crisis of capitalism with proletarisation and vanishing of the middle class in western nations), although I am a lot more certain of that development as a broad trend that has already begun, IMO.

At this point, it’s all just about delaying the repression and concentration of power under a Trump presidency, as well as trying to slow down the climate catastrophe as much as possible on top of that. Things won’t get better any time soon, it’s simply not the historical situation and dynamic at the moment, but every year to organise people for radical alternatives for when the global collapse progresses further is valuable.

It would have taken some big, unexpected developments for him to win at this stage. Especially after the failed assassination attempt invigorated and united Trump’s cult further.

That’s something I think some people just missed when Biden dropping out was debated. Of course, the other potential picks were polling behind him at that point. But he was showing clear signs that he had peaked, and would only be able to fight not to drop further. His most powerful argument had been not being Trump - which any candidate can wield. And any candidate with charisma and the ability to speak, debate and campaign has a lot of room to move up, whereas Biden was fighting not to move down.

Marx and Engels were very clear, that the transition from value-exchange, i.e. money, has to happen as soon as possible, because otherwise, the system will begin to reproduce capitalist dynamics. So, as shopping malls, yes, very much opposed. As distribution/leisure centers? Sure, whatever the dynamics of the new materialist situation will favour/need.

Your last point is actually not a bad analysis - but it is missing that the ones operating their propaganda and troll farms already also control the violence monopoly. And both entities also use violence where they deem it practical.

So, this is 100% speculative rambling at this point, but as a gut feeling on my part that can be proven wrong: I get the feeling it might have been someone from a Republican family, possibly shitty family psychology-wise, registered as Republican for his families sake but got f’d up by the pressure within his personal relationships and the state of the world, who radicalised himself on the internet.

I don’t remember him mentioning the exact year, it’s been ages and I was a child still when he was still alive, but I know it was before the Machtergreifung, because he told it as having been a rally during an election campaign, eerily fitting, I guess.

Two main effects are to be expected: More people leaning towards him, that might not have gone to the polls out of whatever reason (lacking enthusiasm for example) will be more fired up to go vote, and his base will be more fired up to support him in grassroots campaigning. Also, some undecided voters will likely switch from the martyrdom narrative.

Yeah, I remember my grandfather telling the story of how Hitler held a speech at a Stadium that was visible from his attic window, and his biggest regret was, that he did not have a machinegun to take him and the other Nazi officials with him out. The US has enough guns and desperation for someone to attempt this, definitely.

So, I am fearing this will not only rally all Trump supporters to really vote for and support him extra hard, and get some undecideds to his side for his martyr status, but it might also spark a wave of stochastic terrorism and shootings by some right-wingers acting out, who will want to deliver justice to whatever group they will blame.

There is definitely some danger of this potentially spiraling, not guaranteed, but that will depend on some more potentially chaotic weeks ahead. Stay safe, stay prepared, stay organised.

It’s a very common gut reaction to assume something like this has to be “staged”, I said it in the other thread in some discussions: It’s understandable to have it as this feeling. But everyone who feels that way: take a breath, remember the world is much more chaotic and much less controlled than you think, you don’t have to think of yourself as stupid for thinking it, but wait for more information to come out and be ready to give it up then.

Reacting properly to this new reality is much more important, than trying to adjust reality to fit an emotion. It’s human to do that, react instinctively in a first gut reaction, but it is also human to be able to let go of that.

Again, I understand it as an intuitive reaction, but the world is a lot more chaotic than that, and huge conspiracies coordinated well like that are super, super rare. Waiting and being willing to adjust your position is a good thing to do right now. With more stuff coming out, the situation will become more clear.

In the short term, I am expecting right-wing nutjobs to do their own sort of retaliatory shootings, targeting whomever their personal info bubble blames as a group.

At this point, we know very little, but with what we do know at the moment - for this, you’d need:

• someone willing to be taken out as the shooter, willing to or being tricked into shooting blanks, or an extremely elaborate plan to switch in a body (you also have to acquire and prepare somewhere) in front of witnesses and potential cameras
• someone without blanks firing to explain the other bystanders dead from bullets
• complete control over the subsequent investigation, to make sure no one looks into it properly, which would make all the people involved in the know

It is still an extremely, extremely unlikely scenario

The reports I am hearing say that at least two people besides the shooter are dead, which probably is where (some of) the other bullets went. Dude is a coward, but also a narcissist, I assume he noticed that the Secret Service had already killed the shooter, so immediately switched into “I am invincible” mode.

Very unlikely, it’s an easy intuitive thing to think when emotions are high, and there is so much at stake with the election and division so high, that emotions are high as well.

Having a shooter miss you on purpose is something that is extremely risky, not easy to stage, and the US has enough armed people with emotions boiling over and little to lose. It is very much the overwhelmingly more likely scenario.

Could history please have the decency not to re-enact how Hitler survived dozens of assassination attempts?