The ‘weakened state’ could only come with far far more deaths of soldiers and Ukraine citizens and only a matter of time till this happens regardless. There certainly is a state right now in the next few months where where risk is quite high. If Wagner does succeed, I suspect all their energy will be focused inward and they will strive to become an energy powerhouse again. Particularly as the West is so willing to concede conventional energy production to countries like this. That could lead to a very unstable situation in say ten years when corruption becomes full blown.
The ‘weakened state’ could only come with far far more deaths of soldiers and Ukraine citizens and only a matter of time till this happens regardless. There certainly is a state right now in the next few months where where risk is quite high. If Wagner does succeed, I suspect all their energy will be focused inward and they will strive to become an energy powerhouse again. Particularly as the West is so willing to concede conventional energy production to countries like this. That could lead to a very unstable situation in say ten years when corruption becomes full blown.