It’s not as black and white as that. There’s obviously a point where the West would have to push back against Russia. Most likely this grain deal won’t be enough for the West to make any significant new moves apart from what they’re already doing, but Russia is playing a stupid game by using mass hunger in poorer countries as a pawn in this war.

Good, so this scenario was already planned for

This is some bullshit. The first time Russia blockaded Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea, they had the plausible deniability that they weren’t aware it was going to cause mass food shortages in poorer countries. Now they know full well that’s what will happen, and they’re doing it again.

The West would be justified in clearing a path in the Black Seas themselves, in my opinion. Russia’s being little terrorist bitches.

That is a whole lot of new insubordination. Hopefully this all starts materializing to broken Russian defensive lines.

One paragraph called out a Russian division which has apparently already threatened to abandon their positions if their favorite insubordinate commander is arrested:

Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers. Russian milbloggers shared an audio excerpt on July 16 in which the alleged elements of the 7th VDV Division threatened that they would withdraw from their positions in occupied Kherson Oblast if the Russian MoD arrests Teplinsky or threatens his life.[14] The elements of the 7th VDV Division also claimed that they would defend Teplinsky against the Russian MoD and asserted that the high command is targeting Russia’s most combat effective commanders. This audio appeal, if legitimate, is a threat of mass desertion in the face of the enemy on behalf of Teplinsky. Desertion in the face of the enemy is a capital offense in many militaries. The VDV servicemen are blackmailing the Russian MoD to ensure that Teplinsky continues to command troops in Ukraine, despite Teplinsky’s previous affiliation with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who had led an armed rebellion on June 24 to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov.[15]

Hello small instance friends :)

Yes, hopefully the insubordination keeps growing. I like to imagine the root cause of it is Russian soldiers realizing that Putin is kind of a dumbass and they’re throwing their lives away for him.

The Group of Seven (G7) Coalition and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO has agreed on a three-part package that will give Ukraine a multi-year program of practical assistance, create a NATO-Ukrainian coordination council, and commits NATO to allow Ukraine to join the alliance without going through a Membership Action Plan (MAP).[1] G7 members Germany, Japan, France, Canada, Italy, Britain, and the United States signed a general framework document called the “Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine” aimed at offering the Ukraine military, financial, and intelligence support and stated that each member of the G7 will enter into bilateral security negotiations with Ukraine regarding the document.[2] Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that other countries would have the opportunity to join the declaration at a later stage.[3] The general framework document also reportedly promises immediate steps to swiftly provide Ukraine with all necessary support in the event of a new attack but did not specify what that support would look like.[4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the agreements reached at the NATO summit mean that Ukraine would receive formal security guarantees, although neither the NATO nor the G7 agreements currently provide such guarantees.[5] Ukraine did secure notable agreements that will strengthen long-term Western support for Ukraine at the NATO summit, and these agreements will likely serve as the framework for potential increases in Western security assistance to Ukraine.

This was one of the more pleasant things I’ve read from these daily updates. It’s good to know that G7 and NATO are in this for the long haul.

Also this:

The lack of general outcry within the Russian information space regarding developments at the NATO summit, as well as Finland’s NATO accession and Turkey’s agreement to forward Sweden’s accession protocol, likely indicates that the Kremlin has internalized these defeats and desires to avoid dwelling on them.

Lol, get fucked Putin

Sounds like Russia’s defensive lines in southern Ukraine are strained. Also, this stuck out a little:

Russia temporarily disconnected at least partially from the global internet during a test of its “sovereign internet” system overnight on July 4-5.

Nothing says confidence like cutting off your entire country from the internet.

That’s how ISW is referring to the war, as a whole: a Russian offensive against Ukraine. Some might argue that the term “offensive” is too soft, but I don’t think it should reflect poorly on ISW. Their daily updates on the war are reliable and thorough, and are referenced heavily by mainstream news organizations.